Goldman Sachs： In 2025, global AI investment will reach 200 billion US dollars, with the United States accounting for half.

　　Financial Association August 3 (Editor Zhou Ziyi) Goldman Sachs Economic Research reported on Tuesday (August 1) that the global investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is increasing rapidly, which may eventually be reflected in GDP to a greater extent. It is estimated that by 2025, the global AI investment may reach about 200 billion US dollars.

　　Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani, economists of Goldman Sachs, wrote in a team report that Generative Artificial Intelligence (AIGC) has great economic potential, and it may increase global labor productivity by more than 1 percentage point every year in the 10 years after its widespread use.

　　Briggs and Kodnani believe that in order to realize the large-scale transformation to AI, enterprises will need to make a lot of upfront investments in physical, digital and human capital to acquire and implement new technologies and reshape business processes.

　　Promote economy

　　The two economists wrote that AI-related investment is climbing from a relatively low starting point and may take several years to have a major impact on the economy. According to Goldman Sachs, at present, the United States is positioned as the market leader of AI technology, which started relatively early in AI investment. In addition, China, which is a leader in AI field, will also play a role.

　　Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025, AI investment may be close to 100 billion US dollars in the United States and 200 billion US dollars in the world. Briggs and Kodnani wrote, "Although the growth rate is extremely fast, given that AI-related investment currently accounts for a very low share of GDP in the United States and the world, the impact on GDP in the short term may be quite limited."

　　Although it is difficult to predict the time of AI investment cycle, business surveys show that it may have an investment impact in the second half of this decade (after 2025), and large companies in information, science and technology professional services will adopt AI earlier.

　　In the long run, if the AI predicted by Goldman Sachs brings full economic growth, then the AI-related investment may reach 2.5-4% of GDP in the United States.

　　Interest has increased.

　　Although it will take time for AI to improve productivity, the market's interest in artificial intelligence has increased rapidly. More than 16% companies in the Russell 3000 Index mentioned this technology in the earnings conference call, compared with less than 1% in 2016.

　　About half of the increase in the above figure occurred after the release of ChatGPT in the fourth quarter of 2022.

　　The report also pointed out that AI investment is expected to focus on four key aspects: companies that train and develop AI models, companies that provide infrastructure (such as data centers) to run AI applications, companies that develop software to run AI applications, and enterprise end users who pay for these software and cloud infrastructure services.

　　Goldman Sachs economists pointed out, "Although AI investment has been focused on model development so far, generative artificial intelligence may need more hardware and software to expand."